The Classic Gambit of Moscow: How Putin Avoids Difficult Decisions Regarding Ukraine.

Putin Responds to the Proposal for a Ceasefire in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed his stance on the proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine in an interesting style. He noted that there are 'nuances' that require 'careful consideration.' Such a response indicates his unserious attitude towards achieving peace and his inability to make difficult decisions.

'Despite all his public masculinity, Putin feels discomfort in making complex decisions, especially when he is forced to react quickly,' wrote analyst Mark Galeotti.

Putin's position puts him in a difficult situation. If he rejects the proposal, it could lead to disappointment for his American colleague - Trump. But accepting the proposal is also not a simple option, as he risks incurring the wrath of ultra-nationalists who may radicalize returning veterans and accuse Putin of 'betrayal.'

Analyst Galeotti points out that there are signs that Putin is considering the possibility of reaching an agreement. In particular, the redeployment of troops from Donbas to the Kursk direction indicates his desire to avoid maintaining Ukrainian control over Russian territories in the event of a conflict freeze.

Many Russian officials believe that Putin's long-term goal is to gain influence over Kyiv through political means, as complete military conquest of Ukraine is currently impossible.

In Moscow, there is uncertainty regarding Trump's future policy. Despite his current rhetoric, he has previously been tougher on Russia than Obama.

The Russian Kremlin is considering the possibility of forming an alliance with Washington against Europe, as Trump is known for his skepticism towards the EU and is in a trade conflict with it. Russian authorities are also trying to portray Europeans as instigators of war.

Putin acts cautiously for political reasons, even though he has complete control over the country. The Kremlin studies public opinion through the media, and various groups try to influence him through public discussions. This situation is well-known to Putin's staff, so a press digest is prepared for him to influence his decisions.

Moscow employs a tactic of delaying negotiations, creating the impression of a positive attitude towards an agreement while simultaneously undermining its terms. Furthermore, Putin seeks to create future expectations by putting forth additional demands.

'This is a typical strategy of Moscow - to slow down or sabotage negotiations, becoming obsessed with every detail. Putin's diplomats are very good at pretending to create an unbreakable agreement, while actually rejecting ceasefires. However, if Putin decides to accept the proposals from the US and Ukraine while trying to make changes, he hopes to shape future expectations,' writes Galeotti.

Putin's visit to Kursk in military uniform may signal his confidence in a swift conclusion of the operation to expel Ukrainian troops from Russian territory, which is a prerequisite for any agreement.

Even in Moscow, there is uncertainty about the president's final decision. There is a risk that risks from both sides could lead to paralysis in the decision-making process.